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As the scope of resource management challenges continues to broaden, MNR staff are exploring the use of vulnerability assessments as a tool to help them determine those that are most important.
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The Clay Belt in northeastern Ontario stands out from the surrounding boreal forest because it is unusually flat and has fertile but poorly drained soils. It formed about 8,000 BC when a glacial lake drained. |
The International Panel on Climate Change defines vulnerability to climate change as “the degree to which a system in susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of the change.” Knowing the vulnerability of a system allows decisionmakers to propose actions to reduce or eliminate that vulnerability. Assessing vulnerability involves a series of steps:
- determining a system’s or a species’ current vulnerability
- exploring indicators of change
- estimating future conditions
- applying this information to determine potential sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
So what is a vulnerability assessment? It’s a tool that can help resource managers identify, quantify, and prioritize vulnerabilities in a system, for example, to understand how climate change will affect forests and to link that to how forest management practices need to be adapted to ensure sustainability. One of these assessments is centred on Ecodistrict 3E-1—also known as the Clay Belt (Facts About the Clay Belt)—in northeastern Ontario and emphasizes forest-related concerns.
According to Rachelle Lalonde, terrestrial ecologist with MNR’s Northeast Science and Information Section and leader of the Clay Belt vulnerability assessment, “The focus of this assessment is to establish where and how this ecodistrict may be vulnerable to climate change and identify potential adaptation options.”
She explains that the assessment team is focusing specifically on productivity and composition, wind throw, paludification—the process of peat formation—and susceptibility to fire. “Other environmental themes in the assessment include peatlands, hydrology, aquatics, wildlife, and socio-economics,” she says. “In addition to identifying adaptation options for the Clay Belt, we want to develop tools and techniques we can use for vulnerability assessments in other areas.”
OFRI researchers are helping to identify the vulnerabilities and risks and to develop indicators for monitoring future changes in two areas: peatlands and forest productivity and composition. These indicators can be species specific or provide information about changes in entire systems.
Peatland indicators
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| The Clay Belt is located about 700 kilometres north of Toronto. |
OFRI’s Jim McLaughlin is leading the peatland component (peatlands make up 20 per cent of the Clay Belt, with about half forested and half not). He reports that the indicators chosen for the peatlands are:
- the extent of various peatland types
- their species composition
- the amount of area burned and fire severity
- peatland carbon storage and emissions
“Our analyses showed that expected changes in climate in Ontario are not likely to change the overall extent of peatlands,” McLaughlin says. “However, bog area may increase and fen area may decrease. And tree and shrub regeneration and growth are likely to increase, which will increase carbon storage. In general, peatlands should retain their carbon sink function but perhaps at a reduced level as the area and severity of burning increases.”
Forest productivity and composition indicators
OFRI’s Bill Parker is leading the forest productivity and composition component with support from Steve Colombo and Mahadev Sharma.
“We selected forest species composition and forest productivity as the forest indicators,” Parker explains. “For each indicator, we identified what the long-term effects of climate change could be. For example, assuming the climate projections associated with the International Panel on Climate Change’s A2 scenario of continued aggressive reliance on fossil fuel are correct, by 2100 the Clay Belt may be better suited to growing Great Lakes-St. Lawrence forest tree species than boreal species.”
He adds: “We do expect that the growth of boreal tree species in Ecodistrict 3E-1 will improve over the next 30 to 60 years as the climate becomes warmer and wetter, with species such as white pine, maples, and oaks being favoured over boreal conifers.”
Lalonde says, “Once the vulnerabilities are identified, partners and stakeholders, including MNR, aboriginals, local forest industry, local non-governmental organizations, and municipalities, will help to identify risks and prioritize adaptation options based on their acceptability, feasibility, and effects on forest sustainability.”
For more about the Clay Belt vulnerability assessment, contact OFRI. A report on this project will be available later this year.
Visit MNR's Climate Change website.
Did you know...? Facts about the Clay Belt
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| During the first third of the 20th century, thousands of would-be farmers moved north to the Clay Belt area, then known as "New Ontario," hoping to reap a rich reward from its fertile soils. However, many of them soon found that the long winters and poorly drained soils were steep barriers to successful farming. This farm was near Englehart. |
The Clay Belt is one of the most unusual land areas in Ontario. How does it differs from the boreal forest region that surrounds it? The boreal forest has lots of rocky, hilly terrain with poor soils, while the Clay Belt is an island of flat land within the boreal forest, most of which is fertile but poorly drained clay soil, with 20 per cent being peatlands.
During the early 1900s, the Clay Belt boomed, with thousands of hopeful farmers flooding north. But the fertile soil was not enough: The growing season was too short and the winters too harsh for most farmers to make a living.
The Clay Belt still has some farmers, who grow mostly oats, barley, and hay to support local beef/dairy operations. But the primary industries in the Clay Belt today are forestry and mining.
Read a fascinating article about the Clay Belt (from January 1975 Canadian Geographic)
