If the climate changes as expected over the next century, the climate envelope (area of suitable climate) for many of Ontario’s plant and animal species will likely shift, in some cases dramatically. Some ecosystems and species could get lost in the shuffle.
To help ensure that Ontario’s ecosystems and species are sustained as much as possible, resource managers need to know how the climate will change at various scales. Two scales of key interest are:
- Ecoregions, ecologically and geographically distinct areas that are smaller than an ecozone and larger than an ecosystem
- Natural heritage areas, a diverse network of sites (national/provincial parks, migratory bird sanctuaries, wildlife management areas, etc.) that are protected to help conserve biodiversity
In 2010, a team of Canadian Forest Service-Great Lakes Forestry Centre (CFS-GLFC) and MNR researchers was asked to determine how climate envelopes will shift for Ontario’s ecoregions and natural heritage areas.
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| Researchers looked into how the climate of Ontario's ecoregions and natural heritage areas will likely change over the next century. |
They have presented their results in an MNR Climate Change Research Report entitled Current and Projected Future Climatic Conditions for Ecoregions and Selected Natural Heritage Areas in Ontario.
This report spotlights the current climate envelope for Ontario’s 14 ecoregions and 29 natural heritage areas, as well as what’s expected for three future periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. It also presents the current/expected climate envelopes for 12 common Ontario trees to give resource managers an idea of how climate change could affect individual species.
“We found that based on current climate models, Ontario’s ecoregions and natural heritage areas will face major climatic changes over the next century,” says OFRI research scientist Steve Colombo, a member of the research team and a coauthor of the report. “Generally speaking, the climate envelopes for these areas are expected to move north, become smaller and more scattered, or even disappear.”
Research team leader Dan McKenney of the CFS-GLFC points out that over this century, the annual mean temperature in Polar Bear Provincial Park could increase from -4.5 degrees C. to nearly +2 degrees C. “The park’s climate could be more suitable for sugar maple than polar bears.”
Similar changes are expected for most of the rest of Ontario.
The researchers stress that to ensure resource managers can make meaningful decisions for managing Ontario’s natural resources over the coming century, the frameworks used to manage ecoregions and natural heritage areas must account for expected climate change.
Other researchers involved in this work were John Pedlar and Kevin Lawrence of CFS-GLFC; Paul Gray, MNR’s Applied Research and Development Branch; and Bill Crins, MNR’s Parks and Protected Areas Policy Section.
Related article: Climate Envelopes Are Moving—Will Ontario’s Trees Be Left Behind?
