By Ngaire Eskelin, research forester, OFRI
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| Researchers are studying how well white spruce from seed collected in different locations around Ontario will grow when subjected to a variety of climate conditions. Their results will improve our ability to match seed source to planting site as the climate changes. |
We know it’s best to plant tree seed in places with climatic conditions similar to those where the seed tree naturally originated, because trees from that seed will be genetically suited to those conditions.
However, if the climate continues to change as expected, tree seed will become increasingly less suited to where it originated. Climate envelopes are shifting, and it’s unlikely Ontario’s tree species can keep pace. They might need a lift in the form of assisted migration: moving a population to a new area due to reduced climatic suitability of the previous area.
In 2008, a team of OFRI researchers (Bill Parker, Pengxin Lu, Steve Colombo, and I), in consultation with MNR’s Forest Health and Silviculture Section, the Canadian Forest Service and Lakehead University, began a project to improve understanding of how quickly Ontario’s tree species can adapt to climate change to support decisions related to assisted migration. We are asking:
- How will increasing temperatures/shifting climate envelopes affect tree growth, productivity, and wood quality?
- Which tree populations will be best adapted to expected future climate in a given location?
- Is planting southern tree populations further north the best approach to maximize tree survival and growth?
Some of our accomplishments to date:
- Hosting a workshop on assisted migration in Sault Ste. Marie in September 2009, during which participants presented related research and discussed the problem’s scope as well as opportunities for collaboration
- Publishing an overview of a study of the potential for using assisted migration as a climate change adaptation strategy for Ontario's forests, as well as a bibliography of relevant scientific publications (MNR Climate Change Research Report CCRR-19)
We are now working with the USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station (NRS) to remeasure a historical white pine provenance study − a test of a species’ range − set up in 1958 as part of a larger initiative by the International Union of Forest Research Organizations.
Although these trials were not intended for climate change research, they cover a range of climatic conditions and will allow us to compare growth of trees from various seed sources at multiple plantation sites with data on climate conditions over time, which will help us determine which populations will grow best where and how far we can move seed sources.
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| Research forester Ngaire Eskelin labels a white spruce seedling for a provenance test. |
Only 12 sites are intact; with the NRS, we will remeasure seven of the sites in Ontario, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine, all containing trees from 12 common seed sources. Growth and survival measurements will be used to estimate productivity and carbon storage, and the USDA-FS Southern Research Station will assess wood properties to predict the response of wood quality to changes in climate.
Here at OFRI we are also conducting a controlled environment study examining growth response of white spruce seedlings from nine seed sources to a range of temperatures. We hope to learn whether this relatively short experiment can help us determine the optimum summer temperatures for seedlings from various Ontario sources to help determine where to plant them under future climates.
Results of these and other planned studies will contribute to developing policy for assisted migration that weighs potential benefits and risks so MNR can ensure well-adapted forests regardless of future climate.
For more information about this research, contact Bill Parker, bill.parker@ontario.ca, (705)946-7424.
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