April 23, 2014 - 10:30 am
Provincial Flood Watch for Northeastern and Southern Ontario Issued by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources on April 23, 2014 at 10:30am
Local flood messages
Local information about flooding comes from conservation authorities and the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR). Read current local messages.
Provincial flood messages
MNR issues provincial messages to alert local agencies and other parts of government. Read current provincial messages.
Map: Current Flood Messages in Ontario
- Bancroft - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 21, 2014
- Cochrane - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 9, 2014
- Kemptville - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 17, 2014
- Midhurst - Flood Warning - April 22, 2014 4:00 pm
- North Bay - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook and Flood Warning
- Parry Sound - Flood Warning - April 22, 2014 5:00 pm
- Pembroke - Flood Watch - April 22, 2014 3:00 pm
- Peterborough - Flood Warning - April 23, 2014
- Sault Ste Marie - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 17, 2014
- Cataraqui Region - Flood Warning - April 17, 2014
- Crowe Valley - Flood Warning - April 22, 2014 8:00 am
- Ganaraska Region - Flood Warning (Rice Lake) - April 22, 2014 11:00 am
- Hamilton - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - April 17, 2014
- Kawartha - Flood Watch - April 22, 2014
- Lake Simcoe Region - Flood Warning - April 15, 2014
- Lower Trent - Flood Warning - April 17, 2014
- Mississippi Valley - Flood Warning - April 19, 2014
- Nickel District - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 16, 2014
- Nottawasaga Valley - Flood Warning - April 16, 2014
- Otonabee - Flood Warning - April 22, 2014 11:10 am
- Quinte - Flood Warning - April 22, 2014
- South Nation - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 15, 2014
For an explanation of the different types of flood messages, see What are Provincial and Local Flood Messages?
Algonquin Park, Aurora, Aylmer, Bancroft, Guelph, Kemptville, Midhurst, North Bay, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Peterborough, Sault Ste Marie, Sudbury
Ausable Bayfield, Cataraqui Region, Catfish Creek, Central Lake Ontario, Credit Valley, Crowe Valley, Essex Region, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Grey Sauble, Halton, Hamilton, Kawartha, Kettle Creek, Lake Simcoe Region, Lakehead Region, Long Point Region, Lower Thames Valley, Lower Trent, Maitland Valley, Mattagami Region, Mississippi Valley, Niagara Peninsula, Nickel District, North Bay Mattawa, Nottawasaga Valley, Otonabee, Quinte, Raisin Region, Rideau Valley, Saugeen, Sault Ste Marie Region, South Nation, St. Clair Region, Toronto and Region, Upper Thames River
April 23rd, will see a developing north south Ridge of High Pressure continue to move through central portions of the Province towards the Quebec Border. Temperatures in the mid single digit range continue to be below seasonal. Western border regions will see increasing cloud with showers or wet flurries develop as a system running along the 49th parallel merges with a Low out of Colorado. These systems will progress ever so slowly eastwards overnight as they try to push the Ridgeline towards Quebec. Winds will be light to moderate increasing in strength as the Lows in the west begin to merge.
On April 24th, the Ridge of High Pressure moves to lay north/south through central Manitoulin Island keeping regions from the eastern shore of Lake Superior to the Quebec border under mainly sunny skies with light winds. Regions east of the Ridge will continue to be well below seasonal temperatures while the west will see at least a push to near seasonal. Areas in the west from the eastern Lake Superior shoreline to the Manitoba border will see increasing cloud with periods of rain becoming periods of snow where cold enough as the two Low Pressure systems bull their way into central regions of the Province throughout the day. Presently 10-25mm of precipitable water is forecast for the regions from Terrace Bay to Pickle Lake westwards. Where cold enough 10-15cm of snow may fall.
April 25th, (Friday) will see the Low Pressure systems merge and continue to slowly push eastwards. Amounts from 5mm to as high as 25mm develop along the Lake Superior shore with upwards of 10-15mm of precipitable water possibly in the form of snow develops in the north.
Southern Ontario will see continued drying in the early portions of the five day forecast. Northwestern and Northeastern Ontario will see a mix of snow and rain, with little adverse impact anticipated.
Stream flows across the South-central, South-east, and lower portions of the Northeast are high due to recent rainfall and snow melt. There are a still many streamgauges currently above the flood critical level.
Areas from Barrie and Orillia, and then in a wide sweeping area east to Ottawa, North to Sudbury and South to Lake Ontario are currently experiencing high streamflows, and many have reported flooding.
Several days of drier weather continue to benefit many of the areas experiencing high water. Many areas have now stabilized or are receding, although some are expected to remain high for a number of days/weeks.
Recent snow observations indicate the snow line has moved significantly northward. However, some snow remains in the northern portions of Southern Region as well as significant amounts in the North. Where snow remains, melting snow will continue to increase streamflows.
Managed water systems, such as the Trent Severn Waterway, are being aggressively controlled and monitored in order to move tremendous amounts of water through the system. Reservoir lakes are being filled as necessary, dam operations are happening daily and over the course of the next few weeks, levels will begin to stabilize. Areas along the shores of the Trent Severn Waterway will likely see frequent changes in levels and varying levels of flooding. The lower portions of the system, specifically from Buckhorn to Lakefield through to Peterborough, into Rice Lake and then the Trent River, are expected to see conditions improve over the next several days. There remains significant flooding on the Otonabee River as well as Rice Lake and the Trent River.
A close watch on local forecasts and conditions is recommended. The message will be updated based on the changing weather/streamflow conditions.
What are Provincial and Local Flood Messages?
In Ontario, there are two main types of flood messages: local messages and provincial messages. Local messages are issued by conservation authorities, or by MNR districts in areas that are not serviced by conservation authorities. Provincial messages are broader, high-level messages issued by MNR's Surface Water Monitoring Centre to local agencies and partner ministries to alert them to potential flooding.
Your local conservation authority is responsible for local flood messaging and your local municipality is responsible for on the ground flood response. For more information on your local situation, check with your conservation authority. If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest MNR district office. See Who to Contact for Flood Information.
Types of Provincial Flood Messages
- The Provincial Flood Watch provides consistent and timely technical information regarding flood potential to those agencies that must respond to or deal with flood emergencies. The message prepares the provincial emergency response system for flood conditions that may develop somewhere in the province.
- The Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement provides information on provincial watershed conditions relative to the flood potential. The report also provides an outlook of expected spring flood conditions.
Types of Local Flood Messages
- Flood Warning indicates flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities.
- Flood Watch indicates the potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities.
- Watershed Conditions Statement indicates a potential for flooding or other conditions that pose a risk to personal safety, such as high flows, unsafe ice, and high lake levels. There are two types of statements:
- Water Safety indicates that high flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters, anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected.
- Flood Outlook gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high winds or other conditions.