April 18, 2014 - 2:00 pm
Provincial Flood Watch for Ontario Issued by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre of the Ministry of Natural Resources on April 17, 2014 at 12:30pm
Local flood messages
Local information about flooding comes from conservation authorities and the Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR). Read current local messages.
Provincial flood messages
MNR issues provincial messages to alert local agencies and other parts of government. Read current provincial messages.
Map: Current Flood Messages in Ontario
- Bancroft - Flood Warning - April 17, 2014
- Cochrane - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 9, 2014
- Kemptville - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 17, 2014
- Midhurst - Flood Warning - April 16, 2014
- North Bay - Flood Warning & Watershed Conditions Statement - April 17, 2014
- Parry Sound - Flood Warning - April 16, 2014
- Pembroke - Flood Watch - April 17, 2014
- Peterborough - Flood Warning - April 17, 2014
- Sault Ste Marie - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 17, 2014
- Sudbury - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 14, 2014
- Cataraqui Region - Flood Warning - April 17, 2014
- Central Lake Ontario - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 10, 2014
- Credit Valley - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - April 15, 2014
- Crowe Valley - Flood Warning - April 17, 2014
- Ganaraska Region - Flood Warning (Rice Lake) - April 17, 2014
- Hamilton - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - April 14, 2014
- Kawartha - Flood Warning (of Balsam, Cameron, Sturgeon, Pigeon lakes, and Lake Scugog) - April 16, 2014
- Lake Simcoe Region - Flood Warning - April 15, 2014
- Lower Trent - Flood Warning - April 17, 2014
- Maitland Valley - Flood Warning - Harriston Area, Flood Watch for other areas. - April 13, 2014
- Mississippi Valley - Flood Warning - April 17, 2014
- Nickel District - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 16, 2014
- North Bay Mattawa - Flood Watch - April 17, 2014
- Nottawasaga Valley - Flood Warning - April 16, 2014
- Otonabee - Flood Warning - April 18, 2014
- Quinte - Flood Warning - April 17, 2014
- Raisin Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - April 17, 2014
- Rideau Valley - Flood Warning - April 17, 2014
- Saugeen - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - April 16, 2014
- Sault Ste Marie Region - Watershed Conditions Statement – Water Safety - April 17, 2014
- South Nation - Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook - April 15, 2014
For an explanation of the different types of flood messages, see What are Provincial and Local Flood Messages?
Algonquin Park, Aurora, Aylmer, Bancroft, Dryden, Fort Frances, Guelph, Kemptville, Kenora, Kirkland Lake, Midhurst, Nipigon, North Bay, Parry Sound, Pembroke, Peterborough, Sault Ste Marie, Sudbury, Thunder Bay, Wawa
Ausable Bayfield, Cataraqui Region, Catfish Creek, Central Lake Ontario, Credit Valley, Crowe Valley, Essex Region, Ganaraska Region, Grand River, Grey Sauble, Halton, Hamilton, Kawartha, Kettle Creek, Lake Simcoe Region, Lakehead Region, Long Point Region, Lower Thames Valley, Lower Trent, Maitland Valley, Mattagami Region, Mississippi Valley, Niagara Peninsula, Nickel District, North Bay Mattawa, Nottawasaga Valley, Otonabee, Quinte, Raisin Region, Rideau Valley, Saugeen, Sault Ste Marie Region, South Nation, St. Clair Region, Toronto and Region, Upper Thames River
From message issued April 17: Over the next 5 days, northwestern Ontario is expected to be impacted by a series of low pressure systems, while by and large, southern and northeastern Ontario are expected to be spared of any significant amounts of precipitation.
On Thursday April 17th, the Northwest, specifically along the shores of Lake Superior, are expected to receive 10-15cm of snow. Precipitation is expected to continue over the weekend although with slightly warmer temperatures, rain is likely. The forecast predicts 5-12mm of precipitation on Friday and 10-15mm on Saturday. On Sunday the system moves eastwards, but the mild temperatures are expected to remain.
In Northeastern Ontario, minor amounts of precipitation are forecast for the coming days. The Northeast is likely to see a mix of rain and snow, with a 5-day total in the range of 10-15 mm of precipitation. The exception is along the eastern shores of Lake Superior and the very northern areas of Georgian Bay where forecasts are calling for higher amounts – possibly 20-30mm over the 5 day period, although the vast majority of that is expected on Saturday and Sunday (the 19th and 20th). With temperatures in and around the 5 degree mark, rain is likely.
The South is also expecting minor amounts of precipitation over the 5-day period. There is a risk of rain across most of the Region tomorrow, although less than 8mm is forecast. Saturday is expected to be warmer with nil/trace amounts of precip. Sunday is expected to be similar, with temperatures creeping up the 10 degree mark, and only a trace amount of precipitation expected over the more northern parts of the Region. 5-day totals for the South are in the range of 5-10mm of precipitation.
Stream flows across the South-central, South-east, and lower portions of the Northeast are high due to recent rainfall and snow melt. There are a significant number of stream gauges currently above the flood critical level.
Areas from Owen Sound, east to Barrie and Orillia, and then in a wide sweeping area east to Ottawa, North to Sudbury and South to Lake Ontario are currently experiencing high streamflows, and many have reported flooding. There are currently 4 declared emergencies in and around the Belleville area.
The cooler temperatures and lack of precipitation over the last few days have allowed some streamflows to reduce – although many are expected to remain high for days or weeks.
In addition, according to snow survey information from mid-April, there is still snow in the northern parts of Southern Region as well as significant amounts in the Northwest and Northeast. Melting caused by warmer temperatures will increase streamflows again. Additionally, there is a risk of ice jamming in streams where ice is still present.
Managed water systems, such as the Trent Severn Waterway, are being actively controlled and monitored in order to move tremendous amounts of water through the system with as little flooding as possible. Reservoir lakes are being filled as necessary, dam operations are happening daily, and over the course of the next few weeks, levels will begin to stabilize. Areas along the shores of the Trent Severn Waterway will likely see frequent changes in levels, and potentially minor flooding, in order to move water as effectively as possible.
In Northwestern Ontario, particularly along the shores of Lake Superior, warmer temperatures and the potential for rain over the coming days may initiate a melting reaction. It is likely that the existing snow pack will absorb the expected precipitation and is not expected to cause any significant issues.
A close watch on local forecasts and conditions is recommended. The message will be updated based on the changing weather/streamflow conditions. This message will be in effect until (or updated before) Tuesday April 22, 1:00PM
What are Provincial and Local Flood Messages?
In Ontario, there are two main types of flood messages: local messages and provincial messages. Local messages are issued by conservation authorities, or by MNR districts in areas that are not serviced by conservation authorities. Provincial messages are broader, high-level messages issued by MNR's Surface Water Monitoring Centre to local agencies and partner ministries to alert them to potential flooding.
Your local conservation authority is responsible for local flood messaging and your local municipality is responsible for on the ground flood response. For more information on your local situation, check with your conservation authority. If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood watches or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest MNR district office. See Who to Contact for Flood Information.
Types of Provincial Flood Messages
- The Provincial Flood Watch provides consistent and timely technical information regarding flood potential to those agencies that must respond to or deal with flood emergencies. The message prepares the provincial emergency response system for flood conditions that may develop somewhere in the province.
- The Provincial Watershed Conditions Statement provides information on provincial watershed conditions relative to the flood potential. The report also provides an outlook of expected spring flood conditions.
Types of Local Flood Messages
- Flood Warning indicates flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities.
- Flood Watch indicates the potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities.
- Watershed Conditions Statement indicates a potential for flooding or other conditions that pose a risk to personal safety, such as high flows, unsafe ice, and high lake levels. There are two types of statements:
- Water Safety indicates that high flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters, anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected.
- Flood Outlook gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high winds or other conditions.