Current Flood Message

July 2, 2009

The MNR provides flood forecast messages to conservation authorities and municipalities to enable them to prepare for, track and manage local flooding. Flood forecast messages are not flood warnings.

Your local conservation authority (CA) or municipality issues flood warnings. For more information on your local situation, check with your conservation authority or municipality. If you live in a community that is not serviced by a conservation authority, any flood advisories or flood warnings in your area are issued by the nearest MNR district office. Who to Contact

MNR Districts:

Wawa, Chapleau, Timmins, Kirkland Lake, Sault Ste. Marie, and North Bay

Conservation Authorities:

Mattagami, Nickel, North Bay-Mattawa

Weather Situation:

A weakening low pressure system will remain quasi-stationary just south of North Bay troughing through a developing low in the Northeast into another low over northern Quebec. Cloudy condition will remain across the region with showers.

EC Severe Weather Bulletin:

AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN HAS DEVELOPED IN A LOW PRESSURE CENTRE LOCATED EAST OF CHAPLEAU AND WEST OF GOGAMA AND JUST SOUTH OF IVANHOE PROVINCIAL PARK. RADAR ESTIMATES LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 30 TO 40 MILLIMETRES HAVE FALLEN OVERNIGHT AND THE AREA OF RAIN IS VERY SLOW MOVING SO LOCAL RAINFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 MILLIMETRES BY LATER THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVE TOWARDS CHAPLEAU EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THIS STORM SYSTEM AS WELL AS LOW VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

THE COLD LOW WITH ITS UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TO CRAWL ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  AS A RESULT..SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ONTARIO ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND DUMPING LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 40 MILLIMETRES IN A COUPLE HOURS OR LESS.
 

Risks:

The forecast rainfall from this system approaches or exceeds the thresholds calculated by the Surface Water Monitoring Centre’s Antecedent Precipitation Model to produce 25 mm of runoff in the areas under this advisory.  The nature of this system, (severe thunderstorms) are likely to produce heavy amounts of precipitation in a relatively short period.  Should forecast thunderstorms develop, localized flooding should be expected.

A watch on local conditions is recommended.

Warning Levels

FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities.

FLOOD ADVISORY: potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities.

FLOOD SAFETY AND WATERSHED CONDITIONS BULLETIN: unsafe lake, river and channel conditions exist.

What MNR Does

Protecting lives, property and resources from floods and other natural hazards is an important part of MNR’s work. To do that, we must be able to forecast when there is a risk of flooding and help limit the impact if a flood does happen. More than 4,000 sensors feed information from approximately 1,200 stations across the province.

The Surface Water Monitoring Centre in Peterborough uses high-tech equipment to monitor water levels on lakes, rivers and streams in Ontario.

Experts at the centre routinely review:

• detailed, current weather conditions
• weather satellites
• weather radar
• stream flow and levels
• soil moisture condition
• snowpack information
• ice break-up potential.

This provides reliable and timely information about the potential for flooding to occur.