D.W. McKenney, J.H. Pedlar, K. Lawrence, P.A. Gray, S. Colombo, and W.J. Crins. 2010. Current and Projected Future Climatic Conditions for Ecoregions and Selected Natural Heritage Areas in Ontario.
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Applied Research and Development Branch, Climate Change Research Report CCRR-16. Sault Ste. Marie, ON.
 |
|
| Legend | |
|---|---|
 |
Settlements |
 |
Lakes |
 |
Ecoregion Boundary |
 |
Core Climate Envelope |
 |
Full Climate Envelope |
| If a climate envelope is not shown it is because the 1971-2000 climatic conditions for this ecoregion are not projected to exist within the boundaries of jurisdictions shown on this map during this period in time. |
Climate information derived from spatial climate data provided by Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forestry Service, Sault Ste. Marie.
Published February, 2010, © 2010, Queen's Printer for Ontario. This map is a product of the Applied Research and Development Branch, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and the Canadian Forest Service. Produced By: The Provincial Geomatics Service Centre, PGSC Project ID: #8411. Projection: Lambert Conformal Conic. Datum: North American Datum 1983.
This map is intended for the purposes of illustration and discussion only. It shows one of a range of possible future projections of Ontario's climate. Predictions of future climate may vary from those shown here due to uncertainty in the rate of global release of greenhouse gases due to human activity, unknown or inaccurately quantified feedback responses releasing/absorbing greenhouse gases from land and water ecosystems, and shortcomings associated with climate modelling. Do not rely on this map for legal administrative purposes. This map may contain cartographic errors or omissions.
Climate Change in Ontario's Ecoregions - Map Browser
Welcome to the Climate Change in Ontario's Ecoregions Map Browser. To view the climate change maps, follow the steps described below.
Choose between viewing Present Climate or Future Climate maps.
Select the desired map details. For present climate maps, you must select an Ecoregion; for future climate maps, you must select a Climate Model, Time Period, Greenhouse Gas Scenario, and Ecoregion.
Click on the View Map button to display the map.
For more information about Climate Change in Ontario, click on the About link (
).
Climate Change in Ontario's Ecoregions - Map Browser
The maps shown here were produced as part of a project funded by the Climate Change Program, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. The project was a collaborative effort of the Science and Information Resources Division and Provincial Geomatics Service Centre of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, and Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service-Great Lakes Forest Centre.
The maps project a shift in the climatic envelope of each of the 14 provincial Ecoregions for three time periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100.
These projections of Ecoregional climates are based on scenarios of future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations used in four of the many global climate models available to climatologists. The four models used to generate climate projections were the Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM2), the United Kingdom-based Hadley Global Climate Model (HadCM3), the Australian-based Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Global Climate Model (CSIRO), and the U.S. Based National Center for Atmospheric Research Global Climate Model (NCAR). The models were interpolated to a finer spatial resolution by the Landscape Analysis and Applications Section (LAAS) at the Canadian Forest Service in Sault Ste. Marie.
Maps show climate projections based on the A2 or B2 climate scenarios, which depict two potential climatic outcomes caused by different amounts of global atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations during the 21st century. In the A2 scenario atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases reach 1320 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in CO2 equivalents by 2100. In comparison, greenhouse gas levels in the B2 scenario reach 915 ppmv by the end of this century. Greenhouse gas emissions in B2 are lower than A2 because human population growth is slower (15 billion in A2 and 10.4 billion in B2 by 2100) and in B2 there is greater emphasis on environmental protection.
The A2 and B2 scenarios are two of many possible future outcomes. Given that the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere depends on human behaviour, technological development, and the sink/source behaviour of land and water ecosystems, it is impossible to be certain how much greenhouse gas will be in the atmosphere in future. Therefore, while these maps indicate the direction of climate change, they do not make precise predictions about the magnitude or the timing of the change. People who are interested in learning more about climate models and greenhouse gas scenarios should examine:
- IPCC. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. 599pp.
- IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. 996pp