S.J. Colombo, D.W. McKenney, K.M. Lawrence and P.A. Gray. 2007. Climate Change Projections for Ontario: Practical Information for Policymakers and Planners. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Applied Research and Development Branch. Climate Change Research Report CCRR-05. Sault Ste. Marie, ON.
| Difference in Precipitation (%) | |
|---|---|
 |
60 to 70 |
| 50 to 60 | |
| 40 to 50 | |
| 30 to 40 | |
| 20 to 30 | |
| 10 to 20 | |
| 0 to 10 | |
| 0 to -10 | |
| -10 to -20 | |
| -20 to -30 | |
| -30 to -40 | |
| Average Precipitation (mm) | |
|---|---|
 |
50 - 100 |
| 100 - 150 | |
| 150 - 200 | |
| 200 - 250 | |
| 250 - 300 | |
| 300 - 350 | |
| 350 - 400 | |
| 400 - 450 | |
| 450 - 500 | |
| 500 - 550 | |
| 550 - 600 | |
| 600 - 650 | |
| 650 - 700 | |
| Difference in Temperature (°C) | |
|---|---|
 |
0 - 1 |
| 1 - 2 | |
| 2 - 3 | |
| 3 - 4 | |
| 4 - 5 | |
| 5 - 6 | |
| 6 - 7 | |
| 7 - 8 | |
| 8 - 9 | |
| 9 - 10 | |
| 10 - 11 | |
| Average Summer Temp. (°C) | |
|---|---|
 |
High: 22 |
| Mid: 16 | |
| Low: 10 | |
| Average Winter Temp. (°C) | |
|---|---|
 |
High: -1 |
| Mid: -12.5 | |
| Low: -24 | |
| Other Features | |
|---|---|
 |
Settlements |
 |
Park Boundary |
 |
Lakes |
 |
MNR District Boundary |
Climate information derived from spatial climate data provided by Natural Resources Canada/Canadian Forestry Service Sault Ste. Marie.
Published February, 2007, © 2007, Queen's Printer for Ontario. This map is a product of the Applied Research and Development Branch of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and the Canadian Forest Service. Produced By: The Provincial Geomatics Service Centre, PGSC Project ID: #5415, Projection: Lambert Conformal Conic, Datum: North American Datum 1983.
This map is intended for the purposes of illustration and discussion only. It shows one of a range of possible future projections of Ontario's climate. Predictions of future climate may vary from those shown here due to uncertainty in the rate of global release of greenhouse gases due to human activity, unknown or inaccurately quantified feedback responses releasing/absorbing greenhouse gases from land and water ecosystems, and shortcomings associated with climate modelling. Do not rely on this map for legal administrative purposes. This map may contain cartographic errors or omissions.
Climate Change in Ontario - Map Browser
Welcome to the Climate Change in Ontario map browser. To view the climate change maps, follow the steps described below.
Choose between viewing Present Climate or Future Climate maps.
Select the desired map details. For present climate maps, you must select a Climate Value, Map Type and Location; for future climate maps, you must also select the Time Period and Greenhouse Gas Scenario.
Click on the View Map button to display the map.
For more information about Climate Change in Ontario, click on the About link (
).
Climate Change in Ontario - About
The maps shown here were produced as part of a project funded by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (Project Number CC-06-07-001). The project was a collaborative effort of the Science and Information Resources Division and Provincial Geomatics Service Centre of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, and the Canadian Forest Service-Great Lakes Forest Centre.
Some potential future climate projections for Ontario are presented on these maps of summer and winter temperature, and warm period precipitation change (April to September) and cold season precipitation change (October to March) for three time periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The maps show climate in the 3 regions and 26 districts used by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources.
These projections of Ontario's climate are based on scenarios of future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations used in one of the many global climate models available to climatologists. In this case, projections were made using version 2 of Environment Canada's climate model, the Canadian Coupled Global Circulation Model (CGCM2). The CGCM2 model was interpolated to a finer spatial resolution by the Landscape Analysis and Applications Section (LAAS) at the Canadian Forest Service in Sault Ste. Marie.
Maps show climate projections based on the A2 or B2 climate scenarios, which depict two potential climatic outcomes caused by different amounts of global atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations during the 21st century. In the A2 scenario atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases reach 1320 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in CO2 equivalents by 2100. In comparison, greenhouse gas levels in the B2 scenario reach 915 ppmv by the end of this century. Greenhouse gas emissions in B2 are lower than A2 because human population growth is slower (15 billion in A2 and 10.4 billion in B2 by 2100) and in B2 there is greater emphasis on environmental protection.
The A2 and B2 scenarios are two of many possible future outcomes. Given that the amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere depends on human behaviour, technological development, and the sink/source behaviour of land and water ecosystems, it is impossible to be certain how much greenhouse gas will be in the atmosphere in future. Therefore, these maps indicate the direction of climate change, but are not precise predictions of the magnitude or the timing of the change. People who are interested in learning more about climate models and greenhouse gas scenarios should examine:
- IPCC. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. 599pp.
- IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. 881pp.